The Black Swan: Impact of the highly improbable by Nassim Taleb is riveting, opinionated, and a highly controversial masterpiece that leaves you desperately nodding at a new found depth of truth while leaving you pondering at your also newly found position as a Dyslexic (you have to agree to learn how to read everything you ever knew, while starting from the scenarios with the least possibilities just like reading backwards). But how do you decipher the scenarios with the least possibilities in the first place?
This is the undemocratic fiat I was swirled into as I feasted on the book. It brandishes a sharp sword against what number dealers (something I have practically spent a decade of my life doing) – draggers of figures from the air to project into the future. “What? Which future, whose future, do you know the future? Is it possible to know the future on issues, of certain industries? Then, why could permanent situations turn absolutely futile one day?” Taleb seems to be harshly sounding off.
But why would I begin from a highly improbable market crash to determine future markets, my investments, and my income? Is it even possible? As a strategist or a person concerned with strategy for his or her business or the business of others, you definitely get thinking; how do you perceive your business in the next one year? How do we deal with something we cannot see and we don’t know exists but does exists? What if it made an unexpected appearance, will it be the death of this startup or business? How did this industry come about in the first place? What disruptions took place, why did they take place? What scenarios will see today’s disruptors disrupted tomorrow?
As we are ushered into a world of mass disruptions, The Black Swan: The Impact of the highly improbable by Nassim Taleb is a wakeup call to technology startups and leading businesses that seem to own it all. It is a reminder that no one can probably predict the future of business with utmost certainty. Defunct giants like Kodak and Nokia could most certainly afford the best strategists but could they predict the black swan events that ended their reign? Of course, we know the answer to that.
All this book seems to be saying is “it’s gonna happen guys.” Can some insights from it help you make the best bets on the future of a business? Probably!
The Black Swan: Impact of the highly improbable by Nassim Taleb is a must read for entrepreneurs, startup founders, business owners, ceos, managers and of course, strategists.
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